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For a United and Independent Kurdistan

On Turkey, Israel, MENA and the future of Kurdistan

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I have to start by writing that I do not explain the events in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) with Jewish conspiracies and have never done so. Jewish people have suffered so much and in my opinion their main motivation in their decision making for the State of Israel comes from such a background which I shared in my previous post. I strongly suggest everyone to separate the Jewish people, the jewish citizens of Israel and the statesmen and stateswomen of the Israeli state. 

* * *

The ‘seemingly conflict’ between Turkey and Israel is an interesting one. On one hand all the events since Erdogan came to power in Turkey is set up to make us think that Turkey is not in good terms with Israel. On the other hand, during the same period, Turkish foreign policy in MENA has followed a convincing path that Turkey was into developing a new equation in the region by developing peaceful and sincere new economical and political ties with neighbouring states. This was the ‘zero-problem’ policy of Turkey’s foreign affairs minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

I guess all sounds familiar to the reader. I am not convinced to this simplicity.

I must say I followed the developments always keeping in mind the plaquets Erdogan received from the Jewish lobby in New York and Washington prior to establishing his AKP (Justice and Development Party). (No, do not go into Jewish conspiracies. My reading is that Erdogan at the time was trying to convince the Jewish lobby that his Islam was not anti-Jewish)

I do not believe anything in Erdogan and his team’s mind has changed since then. Erdogan and his team are not anti-Israeli, not anti-Jewish and definitely not anti-American. They are pro-Western, a strong member of the NATO pact and a reliable ally for the USA in the region.

I can hear you pointing the relationship with Iran (the nuclear talks, etc) and previously with Syria. I say, these were all the elements of a game. I say, all is orchestrated by the US foreign policy makers and the Turks were careful in keeping their policies in more or less parallel lines with the American policies for the region.

If you are not convinced I will give you Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Syria as example. Do you believe this was an out-of-the-line visit in US foreign policy making that served to no purpose?

Here is how I read the events: if Pelosi’s visit had never happened, stupid Assad would never eat the bait and get that close to the Turks. Do not look for direct connection between events, but rather concentrate on the physchological atmosphere they create. It was after this event that Assad the stupid, not his father the Desert Fox dropped his guards and was convinced to a new possible policy of the Turks.

The Syrians must have thought like that: “if there is a crack in the American politics, then we might have a good chance to make a move forward”. And, what a chance! The Turks had already had a convincing few past years with Erdogan in developing a new relationship with the region. If there was no crack in the States (which was later confirmed by the election of the hero, Obama), Turks, as a strongly-attached-to-the-West-country, would not dare develop such new policies. It had to be real from a reel-politique point of view. Of course, read this together with the re-recognition of Gaddafi by the West, rise of India & China and shift-of-power in the world analysis.

But if one wants to win the hearts of the muslim people of MENA, one also had to be in negative terms with Israel. Voila, one minute crisis with Israel and many more smaller but supporting stories. We have to say that more than stupid Israeli far right wing politicians were natural players of such a game and they played their game well by just being themselves.

But hey, did this effect the economical relationship between Turkey and Israel, only to be a bit convincing? Not according to a report published by American Friends of Tel Aviv University.

What, then?

I believe all turns around Iran. The global economical shift from West to East was not unforeseen before it started happening. I remember this being my first comment on global power game, before reading Zbigniew Brzezinski’s Grand Chessboard; American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. No stupid state becomes the history’s biggest ever superpower and USA is definitely not a superpower by chance, so to say.

Brzezinski’s strategy game demands the US concentrates on Eurasia, not MENA. Though, since the book has been published Russia stretched its arms to at least to secure what was left of a grand empire. China joined the game as a second candidate of a superpower game, which is yet only powerful enough to secure its supplies to feed its exports based economy. The US could not get much from Middle Asia other than occupying Afghanistan, which itself is a huge strategical move, just to mention. Turkic countries have been left to Russia and China peacefully. Azerbaijan, which Brzezinski pointed out in bold in his book, however is still an unshared pie. What have I left out? Ah, ok, Iraq. Has been occupied and reengineered!

Look at the map and tell me what you see? Afghanistan, Iraq, Azerbaijan.. they are all around Iran, surrounding Iran

Now we are talking of two countries: Turkey and Syria. Turkey is the only neighbour left out in the above paragraph and Syria is the only state-ally Iran has in the region. (I exclude Russia being an ally. Big powers will not be allies but rather play their own games).

As I mentioned, right from the beginning I was watching in surprise how the Desert Fox Haffez Assad’s son ate the bait that Turkey was changing its position from being a western-ally-in-the-region-country to a country-in-the-region-looking-for-regional-power. Without moving one step away from the West! (This analysis excludes what the Turks think for themselves)

My reading suggests me that the current scenario is to raise the support of the Arab crowd for Erdogan’s leadership. Once this seen intact, the energy will be transformed into a peacemaking with Israel. And once this secured (which I believe will be easy to) the crowds will be silent to a joint attack of Western powers and Turkey (and Jordan) to Syria. Then, there will not be much remaining on the path to a grand attack to Iran.

* * *

What should the Kurds do? Concentrate in creating and strengthening their political establishment in Kurdistan and among themselves. A peace with the Turks would help concentrate on Southwestern Kurdistan (Syrian Kurdistan). Any peace deal with Turks should / have to / must include the recognition of a Kurdistan National Congress as the body of all the Kurds in the world. Such a body should equally look for global recognition, including a status in the UN.

As for what to do in Southwest Kurdistan (Syrian Kurdistan), I have written my opinion previously.

A map of Kurds under Syrian occupation


Written by M. Husedin

16 September 2011 at 5:07 PM

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