Blog on Kurdistan & Kurds

For a United and Independent Kurdistan

Archive for November 2011

Syrian intervention and the Kurds

with 3 comments

Although events in Libya happened before this blog started and thus my views unwritten, my analysis was that the events of the Arab spring were unexpected and sudden, therefore the intervention to create a change in Libya was unprepared and as a result immature. There were signs of bad organization, mismanagement and lack of roles and leadership among the intervening powers.An intervention to Syria will not be similar.

Analysis, plans and thus an expectation of the result in the event of such intervention will not be immature as Libya. As Bashar the Stupid put well last week in his speech, “Intervention in Syria will cause earthquake”. On one hand, though not unknown, important to be said. On the other hand, once said, these words mark the moment of defeat for the regime in Syria and also the fall of Syria as a state as it is. A regime trying sell itself with the fear of its disappearance.

https://i0.wp.com/arabsummitsyria.com/summit/files/gallary/Assad%20and%20Erdogan.jpg
Bashar Al-Assad the stupid and Erdogan the Turk

There are many wrongs about Syria but the most important two are:

  1. It is not a ‘natural’ state
  2. It sits on a part of Kurdistan

Not natural in the sense that it is the creation of a colonialist deal between Britain and France after the World War I. Syria was designed at the time the ‘French influenced part’ of the famous Sykes – Picot secret agreement. It was perhaps fitting to the needs of these powers at the time when they were powers. They are no more as they were. This era finally comes to an end with US intervention to the region. America has other plans in the region. Syria as it is is an obstacle to these plans.

Sitting on Kurdistan is a problem because it becomes more and more clear that no state is any more able to keep the Kurds under control. Saddam couldn’t, Turkey can not, not Iran but also not Syria. Kurds want an independent state of their own. As America wants access to Central Asia, Kurdistan needs be in peace. It is clear that peace in Kurdistan will come with unity and independence.

Returning back to Syria, if you have a look at the map of Kurdistan (a more or less map) you can see the part of Kurdistan under Syrian control:

https://husedin.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/syriakurds-map.jpg?w=296

The northeast part, namely around Qamishli are where the Kurdish political concentration is. And this is where Syria extracts a good part of its oil. This is the oil that was being sold to Europe and Europe buys this oil no more as a part of sanctions imposed on Syria. The oil sales revenues were more or less 75% of the revenues for the Baathist Syrian state.

THE INTERVENTION
If the rumours and suggestions are correct, then the roadmap to intervention to Syria will be similar to that of Iraq during 90’s. It is also my belief that this is the only way to prepare the grounds for a successful and controllable intervention to Syria. It is only right to trust the Kurds as allies on the ground.

Let’s have a look at how events may evolve around Qamishli if such an intervention happens;

  • The Turks will play a major role as they control a very long border with Syria. Worth mentioning that this border is almost entirely Kurdistan.
  • The border between Iraqi Kurdistan (South Kurdistan) and Syrian Kurdistan (Southwest Kurdistan) will simply evaporate to nothingness as it was fake anyway.
  • Syrian Kurdish territory will become an extension of Iraqi Kurdish territory; both economically and politically.
  • Syrian Kurds will ask the same rights their brethren enjoy in Iraq; a Kurdish National Congress like entity will force itself into existence (wanted or not wanted).
  • Turks will have to choose between being friends or foes with the Kurds. Since the Kurds will be allies-on-the-ground for the West, the Turks will have to choose being friends (Turks will by no means dare NOT taking sides with the West)
  • Knowing that the Turks fear to death of losing control on Northern Kurdistan under their occupation, they will do their best to keep things ‘under control’.
  • Turks will not dare intervene to Kurdish politics more then they are allowed, as they will remember the ‘Hood Event‘ in Sulaymaniyah, in Iraq.
  • As a result the Turks will try to keep things (related to Kurds) under control via Arabs, which will be the soft Islamists in Syria. That will be Turks’ bargain in the game.

In short, I believe this intervention will happen as rumored and as suggested. Kurds will benefit from it as a nation. They will choose to be allies with the USA and the Turks will not have much effect on how things will evolve.

https://i0.wp.com/www.turkishweekly.net/image/Image/energyreview/PKK1x.jpg
A prominent PKK guerilla leader of Syrian origin, Bahoz Erdal (Erdal the Storm)

PKK might be a problem however. They do not fit into the projections for a Kurdistan with their ideology but nonetheless they are players on the ground. Lastly they have decided to take sides with the falling Assad regime. It is perhaps to get as much as possible from this desperate regime. PKK proved well during the 90’s to use well these regimes.

In my opinion however PKK plays wrongly this time. Symbolically by rejecting the Kurdish flag PKK does not stand in where the Syrian Kurds see themselves in a future. PKK prefers its ideological flag rather than the national Kurdish flag. Secondly, by being seen taking sides with the Assad regime, PKK should be drawing a very bad popular image of itself. In contradiction it should also be said that PKK has always been a very flexible organization and equally successful in controlling its supporters. They may very well position themselves in the centre of the things in the months ahead.

All to be seen. This week’s Arab League summit on Syria will give us more hints on how things will evolve.

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Written by M. Husedin

09 November 2011 at 1:27 PM